In late March, multiple reports indicated that the Iranian
regime was escalating its intrusion into Yemen, where Iran-backed Shiite rebels
control the capital and much of the north and west of the country. Tehran has
consistently denied its role, but there is a history of Iranian enhancement of
the capabilities of the Houthi, whose exploits include missile attacks deep
into Saudi Arabia and attempted strikes on U.S. Navy vessels.
It is
crucial that President Trump break this cycle of violence. The simplest and
most immediate way of doing so is by undermining the wealth and power of the IRGC — something that truly should have
been done long ago.
The National
Council of Resistance of Iran issued a report in February detailing the growth of
the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps' training program for foreign-based
terrorists and paramilitary fighters. Many new arrivals in Yemen are Afghanis
who served under IRGC command in Syria.
The sharing of personnel between Syria and Yemen confirms that
the sectarian tensions on display in those conflicts are symptoms of a
region-wide crisis that is being exacerbated by Iran. They serve as glaring
examples of how meddling spearheaded by the Iranian regime is turning national
conflicts into proxy wars which directly challenge Western interests in the
region.
A recent report by the Critical Threats Project sheds
new light on the Iranian role in the intrusion into Yemen, identifying drone
technology and other Iranian weapons allowing the Yemeni rebels to extend their
reach. That report also highlighted a surge in foreign fighters, suggesting
that Iran might be applying tactics like those used in the Syrian Civil War.
The IRGC
continues to flaunt its presence in regional conflicts to overstate its
supremacy. This goes hand-in-hand with IRGC fast-attack vessels ignoring all
attempts at radio contact and all warnings to harass U.S. Navy ships. Several
close encounters have been reported since the new administration took office.
It is clear
that the escalation in Yemen is just the beginning. The IRGC will continue its
overreach until directly confronted, or until it achieves the regional
dominance it clearly seeks.
The
dangerous IRGC antics have reportedly more than doubled since the conclusion of
nuclear negotiations in July 2015. Incidents in the final months of the Obama
administration necessitated warning shots from the American ships, to which
IRGC and other Iranian officials responded with boasts that the Islamic
Republic is prepared to take on the U.S. military before it backs down from its
interventions in the broader Middle East.
The
administration is already reviewing the possible designation of the IRGC as a
Foreign Terrorist Organization, which would effectively blacklist the group
from international markets and greatly reduce the risk of Western capital
making its way into the hands of terrorists. The strategy has received
considerable support from Congress, with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
working on a sanctions bill that would similarly apply terrorism-related
sanctions to the entirety of the IRGC.
There has
also been some push-back, mostly from lobbyists affiliated with the Iranian
regime, arguing that designating the IRGC would increase the risk of war
between Iran and the U.S.
Actually,
the opposite is true. The IRGC is pushing vigorously to draw the U.S. into
proxy wars throughout the Middle East, none of which shows signs of reaching a
peaceful conclusion as long as the IRGC remains involved. In contrast, since Trump put
Tehran "on notice" following its January 29 ballistic missile test,
the regime has shown willingness to cancel additional tests for fear of serious
consequences.
The IRGC has
no interest in prudent cost-benefit analysis. As long as it is operating
freely, unconstrained by economic sanctions, it will continue to antagonize all
of its adversaries. To avoid war, the United States needs to show strength and
decisiveness. Backing down will only embolden the IRGC and increase the risk of
war.
The only
hope for a peaceful resolution to any of the regional crises is to confront the
IRGC by political and economic means. The measures are already on the table. It
remains to be seen whether the Trump Administration will step up and subject
the IRGC to the blacklist it so richly deserves.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the Washington office
of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, is credited with exposing
Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002, triggering International
Atomic Energy Agency inspections. He is the author of "The Iran Threat"
(Palgrave MacMillan: 2008). His email isJafarzadeh@ncrius.org">Jafarzadeh@ncrius.org.
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