The fact thatIran’s presidential election is not a genuine vote springing from the people’s
will, but a farce show resulting from a power struggle between ruling factions,
has become crystal clear.
Currently, with
hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi,
the incumbent President Hassan Rouhani and former president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad entering the race, the scene of this rivalry has settled in to some
great extent.
It’s quite
obvious that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is behind Raisi’s candidacy in
an attempted response to a number of challenges.
Iranian MP
Hossein Ali Haji Doleigani said in an interview without mentioning Khamenei how
the Supreme Leader asked Raisi to participate in the election.
Why did Khamenei place his weight behind Raisi?
Khameneicurrently faces different challenges. The crisis evolving over his successor is
increasing as we speak. The issue of Khamenei’s death has become a topic even
he himself and his Friday prayer imams are speaking of openly. Reports indicate
he is suffering from prostate cancer and two years ago Le Figaro reported
physicians say there is no hope he will survive any longer than two years.
The next
challenge has developed in a new administration taking the helm in Washington,
installing significant changes to Obama’s policies and distancing itself from
Tehran day by day.
These two mentioned challenges have made
Iran’s presidential election a major issue of significance that cannot go
neglected. Raisi is Khamenei’s man for the job, and if he had enough time or a
more suitable candidate from his own faction to stand against Rouhani, he may
have preferred not having Raisi enter the race to safeguard his image.
However, due to
major divides in Khamenei’s camp on one hand, and his illness on the other, he
is in desperate need to place Raisi on the presidency to act as an adequate
springboard for his succession.
Regarding the
new White House, more than ever before Khamenei needs to bridge all differences
amongst his followers in order to maintain his entire establishment. Former
Revolutionary Guards chief Mohsen Rezaie made interesting comments in this
regard:
“… with the
Trump administration and measures carried out by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the
region’s status quo has altered and your government needs to be alert… heavy
pressure is placed on the Islamic republic whenever a Republican administration
comes to power in the U.S. while a liberal-minded government is in power in
Iran…”
This is how the
presidency becomes the main challenge before Khamenei.
Farce elections, Khamenei’s scenario
Considering the
risk Khamenei has taken regarding Raisi, it is crystal clear that the best case
scenario for him is to reach the presidency. The elimination of former Iranian
president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani played as a positive development, both
in relation to this farce election and the selection of his successor.
Such a turn of
events seemed too coincidental and with each passing day rumors of Khamenei
having Rafsanjani eliminated are gaining pace. In an interview with the
state-run ISNA news agency, Fateme Rafsanjani said her father was checked by an
Iranian doctor visiting from the U.S. saying the man was so healthy he could
easily live another 10 years.
“No one knows
why the ayatollah died,” she said, questioning the nature of her father’s
death.
Prior to this
Khamenei had taken another step and for the first time publicly called on a
candidate to not take part in the presidential election. This comes from a
figure who claims to remain neutral in such issues. Therefore, Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards,
all Friday prayer imams and other elements are full throttle behind Raisi’s
candidacy.
Khamenei’s challenges
Leading Raisi to
the presidency is a difficult task, coupled with threats that Khamenei has most
certainly reviewed. The tension amongst Khamenei’s camp is seen how they have
not been able to rally behind one candidate.
Terrified of a
2009 uprising repeat, especially since U.S. politicians describe Obama’s
failure in supporting the Iranian people’s protests as a grave mistake.
Furthermore,
Khamenei’s rivals control the Interior Ministry and are in charge of holding
the elections, making any kind of fraud much more difficult for the
principalists.
Finally, with
Ahmadinejad entering the race despite Khamenei’s advice otherwise, engineering
the elections will not be as easily as planned.
The question is
will Khamenei be able to have his desired candidate become president?
Where is Khamenei heading?
Analysts are weighing Khamenei’s move
to have Raisi enter the presidential race. Was this the right move or has
Khamenei made a strategic mistake, like Iran’s Shah and all other dictators
have in their final weeks and months in power?
Does Khamenei
have the power to completely blueprint the election outcome as he wishes?
If Khamenei fails in his effort, his regime’s inner tensionswill flare. However, the main leverages of power remain under the supreme
leader’s control, while the rival faction is at the helm of the executive
branch. This will result in the two fronts neutralizing each other while their
only common ground is safeguarding the establishment, oppressing freedoms and
further human rights violations. The people’s economic and living conditions, freedom
of expression, along with relations with regional countries
will remain in a gridlock.
However, if
Khamenei is able to have Raisi become president, he will begin tightening his
regime’s belts and preparing for increasing regional and international pressure
to confront the threat of being overthrown through a military campaign. The
difference between now and Ahmadinejad’s tenure is that the engagement policy
has been tested by the international community, and failed.
In both scenarios, although Khamenei
and as a result the entire regime come out weakened after the farce elections,
if the Iranian people boycott this farce election and deny this regime any
legitimacy, they can take one step further in fueling tensions amongst the
mullahs’ ranks and stage a nationwide revolt. This will pave the path for this
regime’s overthrow.
- See more at:
http://iranprobe.com/explore/articles/where-is-khamenei-heading-with-iran%E2%80%99s-presidential-election.html#sthash.gvqrfWAQ.dpuf
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