Rouhani repeatedly during the presidential
campaign mentioned: We not only move JCPOA forward but also expressed rapid
removal of non-nuclear sanctions.
The question is whether Rouhani’s 2nd term
presidency, non-nuclear sanctions will be lifted? As he promised.
Of course, it may be possible that non-nuclear
sanctions are lifted but its requirement for clerical regime is as Mullas term
it “to drink from poison chalice”. Poison chalice of discontinuing the export
of fundamentalism, and terrorism, its warmongering, and human rights abuse and
also dismantling missile program. In fact, if the regime wants to act fast
everyone will welcome it. However, not only there are no visible signs in this
regard for now, but ironically the observable signs point to a reverse
direction.
There are three obstacles to lifting the
sanctions:
First is Rouhani’s personal position. Rouhani,
only three days after the election gave a blank note to all international
account holders on Monday May 21st by saying: "The Iranian people for their
own armaments desires, neither will ask nor will seek anyone’s permission. If
we don’t make our missiles, it will cause miscalculation for a handful …
Americans should know that, when we
technically need to test missiles, we will test them without waiting for them
or their permission”.
This avowal was in response to the US
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Riyadh that said Iran should stop missile
tests. These statements clearly violate the UN Security Council Resolution
2231.
Of course, we should not have expected anything other than this from Rouhani, because in the words of his Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan his tenure has been the most glorious period for regime’s missile program. Rouhani in the same program regarding clerical regime’s terrorism and warmongering stated: "Hezbollah is acceptable and trusted by Lebanese people ... so the accusations against it won’t resolve anything.
He went on adding: “The ones who could have
stood against terrorism in this area were the Iraqi nation, Syrian nation, the
nation of Lebanon. And the Iranians through their diplomats and military
advisors have helped these great nations.
… If it was not for efforts of the Iraqi
people, there was no reason why the Islamic State shouldn’t be in Damascus
today. Who else other than Syrian people (Assad’s regime) and other nations in
the region stood up against terrorism”.
These statements also were in response to the
US president and the Secretary of State in Riyadh who asked Iran to stop
terrorism in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and stop financial backing of Hezbollah and
other terrorist groups.
So Rouhani well indicated that he will neither
give up the missile project nor the export of terrorism by clerical regime. He
won’t reform. He won’t change regime’s behavior.
The second obstacle is the Supreme Leader’s System and Khamenei himself is thatthe Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who are the central element of the survival for this regime thorough suppression and, export of terrorism and warmongering. Cannot and will not put off missile program, export of terrorism and warmongering policies because they are the principals for maintaining the regime. As an example, we could refer to Iran’s nuclear program that even a temporary halt on that, has acted as such an earthquake that its consequential aftershock effects still have not been controlled.
The second obstacle is the Supreme Leader’s System and Khamenei himself is thatthe Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who are the central element of the survival for this regime thorough suppression and, export of terrorism and warmongering. Cannot and will not put off missile program, export of terrorism and warmongering policies because they are the principals for maintaining the regime. As an example, we could refer to Iran’s nuclear program that even a temporary halt on that, has acted as such an earthquake that its consequential aftershock effects still have not been controlled.
The third obstacle: Demands of western and regional countries;
The US Secretary of State in his press
conference alongside with Adel Al-Jubeir laid out conditions for Rouhani’s
second term of presidency by saying: “We hope Rouhani uses the opportunity of
his second term in the office to stop regime’s terrorist activities.
Iran should eliminate financial backing of
these terrorist groups, management, logistics and anything that they do for
such destabilizing force in the region. We also hope that he puts an end to
testing of regime’s ballistic missiles, and establishes the right to freedom of
expression and freedom to organization the rights that Iranians deserve to
have. These are thing that we hope to be the outcome of this election. If
Rouhani wants to change regime’s relationship with the rest of the world, these
are things that he should do”.
The U.S. secretary of state clearly laid out
the condition for consuming chalices of poison for human rights, terrorism and
missile program in front of regime.
Adel Al-Jubeir also in the same press conference
expressed the same demands of the regime by saying: “We will judge Iran’s
regime by its actions not by words. They want to have better relations with us
but at some time they attack our embassies and assassinate our diplomats. They
station terrorist networks in our country and other allied countries. They
supply arms to militants who want to make our countries unsafe and they are
meddling in Arabic countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. They have
created the main terrorist group, Hezbollah. They have facilitated, provided
and supported al-Qaida and many other terrorists’ leaders to live in Iran for
more than 15 years”.
Since abandoning terrorism, missile projects
and respect of human rights are in total conflict with the existence of the
Islamic regime, so there is no prospect of opening. Iran’s regime is at a
crossroads impasse that Khamenei has previously stated either to deal with more
shortages, sanctions and accepts serious threats or face other JCPOA as
Khamenei quotes it: “Accept relegation of an endless deterioration of supreme
leader’s system”.
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