The Iran nuclear
agreement — officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — has
been in effect for a year and a half, during which time the world has been able
to assess the impact of its formal implementation. But it has now had two full
years to consider the effects of its negotiation, which concluded on July 14,
2015.
The negotiations
themselves were promoted by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and his surrogates
as a means of creating a new diplomatic status quo between Iran and the West.
It was hoped that following the 2013 election of Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani, Tehran would moderate its behavior by demonstrating cooperation with
former adversaries.
But internal
moderation of the Iranian regime has proven elusive, and Tehran has shown no
aptitude to reform from within.
The result? Western
powers have learned the same lesson from the Rouhani administration that they
learned from Mohammad Khatami, Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, and other Iranian
officials similarly labeled as reformers worthy of outreach. Moderation is a
mirage Tehran uses to seduce their prey.
Executions have
skyrocketed under Rouhani's watch, with his administration overseeing an
alarming 3,000 hangings during its first four-year term. Analysts expect the
human rights violations to continue as the president commences a second term
next month.
Rouhani's tenure is
also distinguished by a dangerous continuation of ballistic missile research,
development and testing (including evidence of cooperation with North Korea)
and a repressive crackdown by the country’s security forces on activists,
artists, academics, journalists and anyone accused of having ties to the West.
These unfortunate trends have shown no signs of abatement on the second
anniversary of the landmark agreement that granted far-reaching concessions in
return for constructive engagement.
Neither has Tehran’s
regional behavior demonstrated signs of improvement with the regime serving as
a driving force behind sectarian conflict and an active participant in the Syrian
and Yemeni civil wars.
As Western powers
commemorate the two-year anniversary of the nuclear negotiations, a
comprehensive Iran policy that addresses the joint plan’s shortcomings is
needed. The U.S. must take the lead — as it did when nuclear negotiations began
— but this time it must lead the world in confronting Iran over the nature of
its repressive, fundamentalist regime by building a global coalition that
supports regime change from within.
To its credit, the
Trump administration has taken steps in this direction by increasing sanctions
on the country’s ballistic missile program and pursuing the blacklisting of
Iran’s hardline paramilitary organization, the Islamic Revolutionary GuardCorps. But the Trump administration's willingness to confront Tehran would
benefit from clear, overarching policy that more fully embraces the regime’s
collapse and replacement.
Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson’s strong statement before the House Foreign Affairs Committee was a
first step in this direction: “Our policy towards Iran is to push back on (its
regional) hegemony, contain their ability to develop, obviously, nuclear
weapons and to work towards support of those elements inside of Iran that would
lead to a peaceful transition of that government.”
Now Tillerson's
rhetoric needs to be backed with clear statements by U.S. officials — including
the President himself — that the false narrative of internal moderation has
expired and the aspirations of the Iranian people for regime change are within
reach.
It is widely believed
that the sanctions and diplomatic pressure employed by the White House and
Congress are intended to serve the goal of regime change. If so, this needs to
be made clear so that interested parties can coordinate their strategies and
address questions about the availability of the “elements inside of Iran” that
Tillerson referred to.
The regime’s lobby in
Washington would have U.S. officials believe no such elements exist, at least
none with adequate organization and resources to oust the clerical regime and
replace it with a democratic system of government. Such mischaracterizations
are as inaccurate as they are well funded.
The accusations were
addressed earlier this month when Tehran’s parliament in exile, the NationalCouncil of Resistance of Iran, along with the main Iranian opposition movement,
the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, held its annual international
gathering for democratic change in Paris. The gathering included tens of
thousands of Iranian expatriates and hundreds of politicians and foreign policy
experts from around the world who embraced regime change by the Iranian
resistance.
In her speech at the
event, NCRI President Maryam Rajavi praised the international community for
rejecting the failed strategy of “appeasement” that the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action represents and affirmed her movement’s commitment to the
replacement of Iran's religious dictatorship, characterizing it as an absolute
imperative and “the ultimate solution to the crises in the region.”
Rajavi noted what Iran
scholars have long known: 1) Tehran’s vulnerability, domestic unpopularity and
international isolation puts its overthrow within reach; 2) this can be
achieved by the organized, democratic resistance that exists in the country and
is led on the world stage by the NCRI.
The White House can
mark the second anniversary of the negotiations that resulted in the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action by turning the page on the failed Obama policy of
capitulation in the interest of concessions and supporting the aspirations of
the Iranian people for democratic change. By working with the Iranian
opposition to realize regime change in Tehran, U.S. officials send a signal
that they are preparing for the regime’s collapse and democratic transition and
put Iran on notice that a new Iran policy has been embraced.
Prof Ivan Sasha Sheehan is director of the graduate programs in Global Affairs & Human Security and Negotiations & Conflict Management in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore.
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