In
a recent Congressional hearing, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that
the U.S. should “work towards support of those elements inside Iran that would
lead to a peaceful transition of that government,” it signaled a change in
Washington’s policy toward Iran, in that the Trump administration may back
those seeking true and democratic change.
With
growing rifts in Iran’s leadership, and the increase in public dissent, the
international community is waiting to see what will develop in Iran.
The May
19th presidential election sparked an outbreak of protests, which were
escalated by investors who had placed their savings in institutions linked to
the state and/or the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
For the
past year, the network associated with the Iranian opposition, People'sMojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), has focused its effort on raising
awareness inside the country, especially among the youth.
It is
troubling that the perpetrators of the massacre during the summer of 1988,
where at least 30,000 political prisoners in dozens of prisons throughout Iran
were executed, still hold offices in today’s regime.
Mostafa
Pour-Mohammadi is the minister of justice in President Hassan Rouhani’s
cabinet. Conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi was the favored candidate of Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei in the election, as well as being groomed to succeed
Khamenei in the regime’s ultimate leadership post. Both men were members of the
four-man “Death Commission” presiding over the executions.
Revelations
made by the PMOI/MEK network inside Iran exposed those involved in the 1988
massacre. This placed Khamenei in a position of risking a major uprising that
might be worse than that of 2009, or allow Hassan Rouhani another term as
president. However, Rouhani’s second term will be no different from his first.
Recently,
Khamenei and his faction have issued indirect threats against Rouhani, showing
the great divide in Iran’s leadership. Also considered by many to be aimed at
Rouhani was IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani lashing out at those targeting
the Guards. He said, “In the Islamic Republic, we’re all responsible towards
martyrs, society, religion and our country. The biggest betrayal is to cast
doubt toward the foundations of this system… none today must weaken the corps.”
This is believed by some to be a reference to Rouhani’s remarks against the
IRGC through the elections process, and after presidential campaign.
Adding to
this, the Trump administration is weighing the option of blacklisting the IRGC
as a foreign terrorist organization, and perhaps seeking regime change through
supporting the Iranian opposition.
Newt
Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, who has a close
relationship with President Trump, said at a recent Iranian opposition rally
near Paris, “Iran must be free. The dictatorship must be destroyed. Containment
is appeasement, and appeasement is surrender. The only practical goal is to
support a movement to free Iran. Any other goal will leave a dictatorship
finding ways to get around any agreement and to lie about everything.”
A
prominent Saudi figure also showed support of such an initiative. Former Saudi
intelligence chief, Turki Faisal said, “The Iranian people are the first
victims of [the mullahs’] dictatorship.” He added, “Your effort in challenging this
regime is legitimate and your resistance for the liberation of the Iranian
people of all ethnicities, including Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, Turks and Fars of
the mullahs’ evil, as [Iranian opposition leader Maryam] Rajavi said, is a
legitimate struggle.”
Evidence
that regime change may be in the future for Iran is seen in these emerging
developments, both domestically and abroad.
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