by F. Mahmoudi,
The enactment of
a comprehensive sanction bill and designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT) by US lawmakers
targeting Tehran’s military and terrorist arm, is a significant signal of
shifting US policy in reaction to Iran’s destabilizing role in region. The
regime is beginning to realize that the Obama era is over.
This alteration
in US policy acts as a catalyst and facilitator of change inside of
Iran.However, the main factor and grass roots of change are inside Iran.
This pivot point
for a policy change has an accelerating role and is influenced by the
ineradicable behavior of the Islamic Republic and on the other hand the will of
people’s resistance to achieve in such policy.
Now, the question
remains on the Iranian regime’s reaction and choice of direction to the new sanction bill. In such crises, the
Iranian regime has a track record of buying time (delaying tactic) and taking
one step forward and one step backward, as witnessed in previous nuclear negotiations.
If Obama’s policy
of appeasement and concessions was decisive, Tehran would have been forced to
step further back from their evil approach. But this did not happen, and the regime
was constantly revived through newly provided funds and sanction relief.
Instead, Tehran expanded its destabilizing role and terrorist activities in the
region.
The adoption of
new sanctions so far has put Iran in a shocking stage. If these sanctions are
seriously applied and extensively implemented, Tehran will be pinned to make an
ultimate decision.
Retreating or
challenging
Iran faces
widespread and profound social dissatisfaction, parallel to economic insolvency
and serious crises. It understands the language of force and lacks the ability
to challenge. The most likely option for Tehran is to kill time and continue
delaying.
To prevent the
regime’s highly cheating skills, the best policy is to enforce and maximize
pressure. Tehran is a fundamentalist and rebellious regime without any
legitimacy. It is incapable in changing its behavior. According to Iranian
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, changing the regime’s behavior will ultimately
bring the regime down.
Therefore, there
will be no transformation or reform from such a regime. The Iranian people are
keen towards overthrowing this regime and the comprehensive and extensive
sanctions on IRGC is aligned and in support of their will for regime change.
The social
conditions in Iran have come to a boiling point and the opposition movement has
the potential and an upper hand. The path forward is social rebellions to
overthrow this regime.
During the 2009
uprisings Iranians were chanting: “Obama, Obama are you with us or the
mullahs?” as they called in vain for international support.
The policy shift
The Iran policy
shift has its effect inside the regime and they have been vocal about it. In
this regard the “Resalat daily”, regime’s controlled paper, in
its July 31, 2017 issue, pointing to the change in the international affairs
towards the Iranian regime states: “Behind the sanctions belies a boycott
campaign. There will be an overthrowing in a soft, sophisticated and silent
way,” a recent piece in the state outlet Resalat daily reads.
Ahmad Jannati,
Chairman of the Guardian Council, also raised deep concerns. “[Khamenei’s] most
important concern is the fear of overthrow,” and “the enemy is seeking regime
change from within,” he said.
Iran won’t have
the same fate as Iraq and Syria since there is an organized democratic and
powerful opposition. This alternative is the National Council of Resistance of
Iran, a democratic platform which the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran(PMOI/MEK) is the main force. On July 1st the NCRI demonstrated its strength
and abilities by gathering hundreds of thousand supporters in Paris, all
seeking regime change in Iran.
The NCRI demands
a boycott in international diplomatic and economic relations and expelling
Iranian regime representatives from international assemblies. The IRGC and
affiliated proxies must also be evicted from the region.
The appeasement
policy
On a side-note,
the Iranian regime feeds off its lobbies’ propaganda and advocates promoting
yet again the appeasement policy, aimed at justifying and legitimizing
beneficial relations with Iran. The regime’s lobby argues the international
community should cooperate with Tehran as there is no alternative other than
war. This absurd propaganda is promoted while the IRGC has been in war in
Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
In same regards,
US Secretory of States Rex Tillerson recently insisted on cooperation with
Russia to tackle terrorism and end the Syria war.
“Iran’s military
influence, the direct presence of Iranian military forces inside of Syria, they
must leave and go home, whether those are Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces or
whether those are paid militias, foreign fighters that Iran has brought into
Syria” he said.
All evidence
shows the only path to peace and stability in Iran and the Middle East is to
support the NCRI and pressure Tehran through extensive sanctions.
The NCRI issued a
statement welcoming the new law imposing sanctions against Iran and the
Revolutionary Guards, emphasizing its immediate implementation meticulously
without exception.
Furthermore, NCRI
President-elect Mrs. Maryam Rajavi underscored these sanctions must be
implemented immediately against all individuals and entities involved in
executing and torturing the Iranian people, especially those directly involved
in the 1988 massacre of over 30,000 political prisoners.
Rajavi also
emphasized that the people’s right of resistance for regime change must be
recognized. She also views these collective ultimately resulting in stability
and peace in the region.
originally
published in the english.alarabiya
Comments
Post a Comment