Iran has only begun to
feel the pain of Trump’s sanctions
As the
Iranian regime reels under the strain of renewed sanctions, the Trump
administration is already preparing
the next phase.
We see
too little of it in our press, but Iranians are increasingly taking to the
streets and the clerics’ hold on power is weakening.
And it’s
about to get worse for the regime. A new round of US sanctions, announced in
advance, kicked in Monday. It restricts currency transfers and bans trade in
gold, silver, aluminum, steel and other metals.
Most of
the new sanctions have already been factored in, changing the way the world
does business in Iran. European politicians, who’ve sanctified President Barack
Obama’s nuclear deal, are calling on companies to stay put and do business in
Iran, as the seven-party Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action dictates.
But
business is business.
After the
nuke deal was signed, France’s Renault was eager to position itself for the day
all sanctions would be removed, cutting deals to dominate Iran’s car market.
Anticipating Monday’s sanctions, however, Renault announced an end to all its
Iran businesses in July — even though it sells no cars in America.
Meanwhile,
under US pressure, Germany’s central bank last week announced new limits on
foreign access to cash, blocking a desperate attempt by cash-strapped Tehran to
withdraw 300 million euros ($375 million) from a Hamburg-based
Iranian-controlled bank.
European
politicians, still bitter over the Trump administration’s decision to
pull out of the Iran deal and reimpose sanctions, like to issue defiant
press releases. But the American squeeze is working. “We know Iran is
increasing activities throughout Europe, and so we must be vigilant,” US
Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell told me Monday.
Buckle
up. The next sanctions phase, due in November, will hit Iran’s only viable
source of income: oil.
Iran’s
oil exports are expected to be halved. Saudis, Russians and Americans will seek
to fill the void, making sure Iran, not global consumers, feels the pain.
So you’d
think (and the regime had hoped) Iranians would blame America. Instead,
striking truck and taxi drivers, workers in faraway dusty towns,
environmentalists, women, bazaar salesmen — all blame the regime.
With good
reason. Obama’s generous JCPOA-related gifts to the regime, more than $100
billion in cash, never trickled down to the people. The money was spent on
regional wars, propping up global terror organizations and lining the pockets
of regime bigwigs.
The
Iranian people no longer buy the “Great Satan” trope. “Even the bazaaris [who
strongly supported the regime] know that impediment to normal life is not
international, but domestic,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran watcher at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
And as
protests swell, “many of the enforcers, those who joined the Basij and
Revolutionary Guards because it was their only employment option, may also
defect and join the uprising,” says the Israeli Farsi broadcaster Menashe Amir.
“After all, they’re Iranian too.”
The
Western press largely ignores or belittles such tectonic shifts, but the Trump
administration doesn’t.
Last
month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Iranian-Americans in California, expressing
support for the protesters. In a Sunday tweet, he backed “the Iranian people’s
right to protest against the regime’s corruption & oppression without fear
of reprisal.”
Trump’s
strategy — turning to the Iranian people — is a major departure from Obama’s
coddling of the clerics. Without declaring it outright, Washington has been
encouraging regime change, or at least trying to force an end to the regime’s
pursuit of nukes, missiles and Mideast aggression.
Sure,
regime change could be chaotic, lengthy and bloody. It could lead to an even
more repressive, dictatorial and cruel leadership than the current one. Then
again, it may liberate the Iranian people and, more likely, end Tehran’s
pursuit of the most dangerous arms and the spread of global violence and
terrorism.
“Yes,
it’s hard to get worse than the Islamic Republic, but the Mideast is full of
surprises,” cautions Ben Taleblu. Yet, he adds, a new regime, “popular and
representative, will benefit the Iranian people, the Mideast and the
international community.”
The
potential risks are dwarfed by ample rewards, so by all means, tighten the
screws. On to the next Iran sanctions phase.
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