Is Iran in a revolutionary
situation?
By Hamid Bahrami
When the poor class in a nation has
nothing to lose and starvation forces them to look
for food in bins all while
any critic of the luxurious lifestyle of their oppressor are met with brutal
repression, neither bullets nor mass arrests can stop them from protesting
against the status quo.
At a time when masses only see a dark
future for themselves and their families, any organized opposition effort to
tear down the wall of repression will foster a culture of resistance and give
courage to the silent majority to join the starving protesters on the streets.
When the affluent ruling class is
riddled with corruption and the ruling system can no longer deceive people
because of growing internal conflicts among the political establishment and is
unable to reinstate the atmosphere of fear by its security organs because of
losing ideological leverage, a real change in favor of the poor class is
inevitable.
The above is the very definition of a
revolutionary situation in a society.
However, when there also exists a
determined popular resistance movement to overthrow the authoritarian system,
no powers, no cunning opportunists nor behind the scene deals can provide the
ruling class with security guarantees and ensure their survival by stopping the
change whose time has come.
Such is the situation today in Iran’s
society.
Discussions over reforming the
Islamic Republic has dominated the Iran debate for nearly two decades. But this
illusion only resulted in a destroyed country with constant state attacks on
the civil liberties and fundamental rights of the citizens, faltering economy,
high suicide rate (due to social and economic difficulties) and environmental
crisis.
Earlier this year, poor and starving
Iranians rose up against the regime in at least 100 major and small cities
across the country despite the authorities responding with bullets to their
legitimate demands. At the time, the middle class did not join them because of
the high risks associated with dissent.
Now in the hot Iranian summer, a different scenario is being played out on streets of Iran.
Now in the hot Iranian summer, a different scenario is being played out on streets of Iran.
For six consecutive days,
anti-government protests by Iranians fed up with their nation's economic woes
have spread to 10 major cities, and have turned
violent.
This time, it's different
What makes this wave of
demonstrations different is that the people have finally had
enough of being
robbed by the ruling regime and decided to come out to the street.
Hassan, an employee of the Sepah bank
in Isfahan whose last name is not provided because of security reason, tells me
that, “until last year, my family and I could afford living expenses if I
worked hard and economized but this is now impossible. This is while our money
is being spent in Syria and Iraq or is being stolen by officials and their
children”.
“I did not attend the nationwide
protests last January because I thought that was not my problem but now
middle-class citizens like me are rapidly becoming poorer”, he adds.
I have heard similar stories from
dozen others like Hassan and most of them say they will be forced to take the
risk and join other protesters if the situation does not change.
Brutal crackdown
The Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown
shows that it is unable to address and deliver on the legitimate demands of the
people on the street.
Now, one could argue that a
revolutionary situation with popular protesters on the streets needs an
organized opposition movement and strong leadership who are able to articulate
the demands of the poor and middle class into a clear roadmap for success.
These crucial ingredients for success
is provided by the opposition coalition the National Council of Resistance ofIran (NCRI), and its main organized constituent, the People’s Mojahedin
Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), among the various Iranian opposition groups.
Both the MEK and the NCRI have
spearheaded the struggle against the Iranian regime for a free, democratic and
secular Iran for the last 40 years and are the opposition most feared by the
regime’s Supreme Leader and officials.
These days the MEK is organizing anti-regime protests through its network inside Iran and help the people to break through the brutal crackdown of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) forcing the Supreme Leader and other senior officials to acknowledge this reality publicly.
These days the MEK is organizing anti-regime protests through its network inside Iran and help the people to break through the brutal crackdown of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) forcing the Supreme Leader and other senior officials to acknowledge this reality publicly.
Losing the domestic struggle to the
forces of democratic change, the Iranian regime is now desperate to deflect the
crisis by provoking a controlled military tension in the region.
Considering the situation on Iran’s
streets, the Trump administration should not fall in the theocracy's trap as
the clerics are looking for ways to secure their survival and instead continue
to support the protesters on the streets in Iran as Secretary Pompeo did
recently in his speech to the Iranian-American community.
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